The United States and Iran will resume their nuclear negotiations in Oman on Friday, which represents a fragile diplomatic window after an extended period of negotiation and rising tensions.
Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, has indicated that these discussions will take place at 10:00 am (local time) in Muscat. Earlier disagreements regarding the format and location of these negotiations, which raised fears that the negotiation would be permanently suspended. These negotiations will have support provided by Oman, which has a long history of acting as a mediator between the US and Iran.
The negotiation process had appeared to reach a point of collapse earlier this week. Reports indicated that there was no agreement regarding the location and format of these negotiations, and multiple Arab and Muslim leaders had intervened to urge both sides to keep the negotiation process alive.
Marco Rubio — US Secretary of State — has confirmed that the US is open to additional dialogue; however, meaningful progress towards a successful resolution will require Iran to demonstrate a broader commitment to the process.
Trump issues fresh warning
U.S. President Donald Trump continues his clampdown as the discussions between the U.S. and Iran come closer together. On NBC News, President Trump told host Andrea Mitchell that he would continue to pursue military options in order to pressure the Iranian leaders into making an acceptable deal with the U.S. if the upcoming discussions didn’t result in a positive outcome.
When asked if he thought Iran’s Supreme Leader should be worried about any potential military option coming from the U.S., President Trump replied, “Absolutely, yes.”.
The Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, responded by saying that a U.S. military attack would begin a much larger conflict in the Middle East.
Over the past few weeks, the number of U.S. military personnel in the Middle East has continued to increase, with a larger presence confirming President Trump’s message of diplomatic engagement backed by the use of force if necessary.
U.S. and Iranian negotiators have different views on what should be included in the upcoming discussions, with Iran wanting the discussion to focus only on their nuclear program and lifting of sanctions. The U.S. wants to have a larger agreement including other factors as well. According to Marco Rubio, the following issues will also be included in discussions between the parties:
- The ballistic missile program of Iran
- Support to armed militias in the region by Islamic Republic of Iran
- Rights violations and treatment of dissenters
- Iran’s nuclear enrichment activity
Iranian officials have said missile development is “off the table” and expanding the agenda would jeopardize negotiations.
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Nuclear issues and the recent regional war
According to Trump, Iran was almost ready to make a nuclear bomb before US and Israeli airstrikes last year destroying important sites during a short war in the region. His assertion is based on alleged intelligence that Iran planned to construct a new enrichment facility.
Iran has rejected this allegation and denied any intention of developing a nuclear bomb.
In addition, Iran has seen a large number of protests occurring due to economic mismanagement and increasing living expenses. The resultant crackdown has drawn worldwide condemnation; with thousands reportedly killed or injured
Cautious optimism; No certainty regarding future
Both countries still see the possibility to negotiate a deal. Araghchi has publicly stated Iran could modify its position and would sign a No Nuclear Weapon Agreement in exchange for sanction relief.
However, both analysts and government officials note that the degree of mistrust, differing demands on both sides, and tensions with neighbours will present hurdles for any progress.
Whether Friday’s meeting will lead to renewed dialogue remains to be seen; the absence of compromise regarding “key” topics will continue to pose a challenge for reaching a comprehensive nuclear accord.
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